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Iran–USA: Record Attacks at Sea, Forces Gather, and the Talks Harden
Our monthly risk briefing on the Iran–USA war, October 2026
Today we publish the October edition of our Iran–USA monthly risk briefing, covering 29th September to 28th October. We assess the overall risk arising from the war as High and rising. The full briefing, with our risk ratings, scenarios and 123 footnoted sources, is available to download below.
The month in brief
October was the most dangerous month of the war at sea, even though neither side struck the other’s territory. By 23rd October, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy had recorded 28 confirmed and reported attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. That is the highest monthly total since the war began in February. On 11th October alone, 6 vessels were attacked, the most in a single day of the war. On 14th October, maritime officials said a container ship and a dry bulk carrier had sunk near the strait after being hit by projectiles. 2 senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran was using new tactics against shipping to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections. Transits through the strait fell to about 29 a day, against a historical average of about 138.
Washington prepares
The United States did not strike Iran this month, but it assembled the means to do so. A third aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Theodore Roosevelt, sailed for the region with an amphibious ready group, carrying about 9,000 more troops. The Pentagon instructed US Central Command to complete preparations for a possible return to major combat. On 8th October, President Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on 3rd November. Planning continued all the same. On 26th October, US officials told CNN that forces could launch major operations within 96 hours of an order, most likely after the vote.
Talks continue, but the positions harden
Messages still pass between Washington and Tehran through Pakistan and Qatar, but the gap has widened. President Trump told a rally on 7th October that a deal “isn’t really something that I want to do”. By 26th October, Tehran was insisting that 7 conditions be met before it would consider a new phase of talks. The same day, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister, Pakistan’s army chief and Turkey’s intelligence chief met President Pezeshkian in Tehran on behalf of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. That opened a new regional channel, but Iran told the delegation there would be no talks before its demands were met. Economic pressure also widened. On 1st October, the US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s automotive and rail sectors and their foreign suppliers, including companies in Germany.
Our judgement
We judge it almost certain that the war continues without a settlement through the midterms. We judge it highly likely that the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted through November. We now assess a resumption of large-scale US strikes within the next 3 months as a realistic possibility, and the military build-up means it could come at short notice. As a result, we have moved our baseline scenario, an armed stand-off at sea, down from Likely to Realistic Possibility.
Why it matters for European readers
Energy remains the sharpest exposure. The US Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $114 a barrel in September, and it raised its fourth-quarter forecast to $105. That forecast was published before the worst of October’s attacks, and the risk now runs into the heating season. The Treasury’s latest designations reach suppliers in Germany, which raises the compliance risk for European firms. In the Red Sea, the EU’s Operation Aspides is still struggling to find the warships it needs as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia escalate.
What we are watching
Over the coming month, we are watching for 5 things.
Any US order to strike after the midterms on 3rd November, and the arrival of the Roosevelt strike group
Whether Iran formally replies to the US counterproposal, and whether the Makkah pact countries take on a mediation role
Whether attacks on shipping stay above October’s record, and whether Iran’s claims of mine strikes are independently confirmed
The final result of Israel’s election on 27th October, and whether the next government keeps pressing for strikes
The US Energy Information Administration’s next outlook on 10th November, and further Treasury designations
Read the full October briefing below. The next edition will be published on 29th November 2026.
